Florida Republicans Face a Turnout Test as Governor’s Race Enters Final Days

Florida’s turnout test

Updated November 2, 2026, 12:12 AM Central

Florida Republicans are watching early voting with unusual unease as the governor’s race heads into its final days. The concern is not that the party has lost its registration advantage—it has not—but that its advantage among people who had already voted was much smaller in the figures examined by Axios.

As of Sunday morning, November 1, registered Republicans led registered Democrats by about three percentage points in early ballots cast, Axios reported. The outlet compared that with an approximately 11-point Republican advantage in party registration. Both figures are snapshots and may change as more ballots are recorded.

Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces Democrat David Jolly in the November 3 governor’s election. The result is not determined by early-turnout numbers, and a voter’s registration does not reveal how that person marked a secret ballot.

What the numbers can—and cannot—tell us

Turnout figures can show which registered voters have cast ballots so far. They cannot show which candidate received those votes, how unaffiliated voters voted or how many people will turn out on Election Day.

University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found particularly weak Republican early turnout in parts of the Panhandle and rural northern Florida, including counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary, Axios reported. In a separate October 31 post, McDonald described Republicans lagging Democrats and unaffiliated voters in early participation.

Florida Republicans have historically performed strongly among Election Day voters. Axios reported that party leaders expect a substantial Tuesday turnout, while acknowledging concern over the early numbers. A party lead in voting activity is not a lead in counted votes for a candidate.

The governor’s race

Donalds and Jolly are competing to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Axios reported that many polls showed Donalds narrowly ahead, while campaign estimates raised concerns among Republicans about the balance of early votes. Internal campaign estimates are projections, not official results.

One October 4–10 survey commissioned by MDW Communications found Donalds ahead by 2.1 percentage points among likely voters. It is one survey from earlier in the campaign, not a prediction of the final outcome.

Voters will also decide a U.S. Senate contest, congressional seats and other offices. The Associated Press notes that Florida counties generally report early and mail results before most Election Day votes, meaning the first numbers can look different from later returns.

Dates to know

October 31McDonald posted an analysis of Florida early voting. His post
November 1, morningAxios reported a three-point Republican edge in the party registration of early voters. Axios
November 3Florida’s general election is scheduled. Florida Division of Elections