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SAT 3 OCT 2026
Newstro
Election 2026SAT., OCT. 3, 2026 • VIDEO REPORT

Texas Senate Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton by 6 Points

A New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, as Texas Democrats hope for their first statewide win in 32 years.

Based on reporting by Robert Draper, The New York Times

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Video thumbnail: Texas Senate Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton by 6 Points 3:08
+6Talarico, NYT/Siena
+4Hinojosa over Abbott
32 YRSSince a Democratic win

What’s happening

Democrats in Texas are hoping to win a statewide race for the first time in 32 years, The New York Times reports. Its latest poll with Siena, conducted Sept. 21–30, shows Democrat James Talarico, a 37-year-old state legislator, six points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, in the U.S. Senate race.

A mid-September poll from ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute also showed the Democratic candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, four points ahead of Greg Abbott, the three-term Republican incumbent. James Henson of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin said Democrats have “been burned for so long.”

Democrats point to President Trump’s unpopularity: a September Texas Southern University survey found him seven points underwater in a state he won by nearly 14 points in 2024. The Times reports Talarico has run an energetic, well-financed campaign, while Paxton has held fewer public events. Paxton and his allies have spent more than $100 million on ads trying to redefine Talarico as radical.

Republicans keep structural advantages: straight-ticket voting ended in 2020, Texas lacks universal online registration, and voting by mail is highly restricted. Henson said Texas may become competitive gradually rather than turning blue overnight. Election Day is Nov. 3.

Newstro reports facts and attributes every statement. Polls are snapshots, not predictions. Photos marked “file photo” are from other dates and events.

The Newstro report

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Newstro graphic: Talarico leads Paxton by 6 points in the NYT/Siena Senate poll; Hinojosa leads Abbott by 4 points in the ReconMR/Siena governor poll
GRAPHIC: NEWSTRO

The polls

The New York Times/Siena poll of the Senate race was conducted Sept. 21–30. The governor’s race poll came from ReconMR and the Siena Research Institute in mid-September.

In the governor’s race, the Times reports Abbott has outspent Hinojosa ten to one but has not built an insurmountable lead.

+6Talarico (D) over Paxton (R)
+4Hinojosa (D) over Abbott (R)

The record

  1. Gov. Rick Perry defeated Democrat Tony Sanchez by 18 points in the governor’s race.

  2. Greg Abbott won his first term as governor by 20 points over Democrat Wendy Davis.

  3. Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of Sen. Ted Cruz, the closest recent Democratic result.

  4. Four years later, O’Rourke lost the governor’s race to Abbott by 10 points.

  5. The Texas House impeached Paxton over allegations that included bribery. He was later acquitted by the State Senate.

  6. After Trump endorsed him, Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary. Democrats point to record turnout in their own primary that month.

  7. Democrats say they are fielding candidates in all 150 state races for the first time in half a century.

Newstro graphic of recent Democratic defeats in Texas statewide races: 2002 by 18 points, 2014 by 20, 2018 by 2.6, 2022 by 10
GRAPHIC: NEWSTRO

Decades of defeats

Recent Democratic hopefuls have fallen short in Texas. The closest result came in 2018, when O’Rourke lost to Cruz by 2.6 points.

32 YRSWithout a Democratic statewide win
2.6Points: the closest recent race

The landscape

Straight-ticket voting ended in 2020, Texas lacks universal online registration, and voting by mail is highly restricted.

Republicans’ structural advantages

Trump is seven points underwater in Texas, a September Texas Southern University survey found, and Democrats saw record primary turnout in March.

The Democrats’ case

Henson is skeptical that enthusiasm will carry Talarico, but doubts a late wave of negative ads will be decisive for Paxton.

James Henson, Texas Politics Project

As reported by The New York Times.

Sources and credits

Reporting

The New York Times — “In Texas, Talarico’s Strength in Senate Polls Inspires a Democratic Dream” (Robert Draper, Oct. 3, 2026).

Photos (Wikimedia Commons)

  • James Talarico — Larry D. Moore (CC BY 4.0)

Graphics and layout: Newstro. The video also uses photos of Ken Paxton (Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0), Gina Hinojosa (RRC1701, CC0), Greg Abbott (NASA JSC/Robert Markowitz, public domain), the Texas State Capitol (LoneStarMike, CC BY 3.0), Fort Worth (DerekAyala27, CC BY 4.0), the Texas flag (Quintin Soloviev, CC0) and a rally (H. Michael Karshis, CC BY 4.0). All photos are file images from other dates and events.