LATEST
SUN 4 OCT 2026
Election 2026SUN., OCT. 4, 2026 • VIDEO REPORT

Democrats Lead Governor Races in Four Republican-Held States, Polls Show

New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska one month before Election Day, while the Republican leads in Kansas.

Video thumbnail: Democrats Lead Governor Races in Four Republican-Held States, Polls Show 3:15
4GOP-held states with Democrats ahead
+4Republican lead in Kansas
40%Trump approval, five states

What the polls show

One month before Election Day, Democrats are within reach of flipping four Republican-held governorships, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena. The Democratic candidates lead in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska. Kansas, where the governor’s office is held by a retiring Democrat, is the only state surveyed where the Republican is ahead.

In Texas, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is now narrowly behind Democrat Gina Hinojosa, an Austin lawyer and former school-board president. Twenty-eight percent of Texas voters worried Hinojosa was too far to the left, compared with 45 percent who were concerned Abbott was too far to the right. Abbott retains an enormous financial advantage, the Times reports.

The widest Democratic lead was in Iowa, where State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn. In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director, now has the advantage over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, after the two were neck and neck in June.

President Trump’s approval rating stands at 40 percent across the five states, but in four of them the Republican candidates for governor are running ahead of it, according to the Times.

Newstro reports facts and attributes every statement. Poll leads are as reported by The New York Times; each state poll has a margin of sampling error of 4.5 to 5.5 points. Photos are file images from other dates and events.

The Newstro report

Read the transcript click a paragraph to jump to it in the video
Newstro graphic of five governor races: Democrats lead in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska; the Republican leads by 4 points in Kansas
GRAPHIC: NEWSTRO

The five races

Iowa: Rob Sand (D) leads Zach Lahn (R) for the seat of retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds. More than half of likely voters view Sand positively, including more than 20 percent of Republicans.

Ohio: Amy Acton (D) has the advantage over Vivek Ramaswamy (R), including 11 percent of Trump’s 2024 supporters.

Kansas: State Senate President Ty Masterson (R) leads state lawmaker Cindy Holscher (D) by four points for the seat of outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly (D).

4GOP-held seats where Democrats lead
+4Masterson (R) in Kansas
Newstro graphic of Alaska's simulated ranked-choice count: three Republicans collectively won more first choices, but Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins held a slight lead over Bernadette Wilson after three rounds
GRAPHIC: NEWSTRO

Alaska’s ranked choice

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces three Republicans: Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor. The Republicans collectively won a larger share of initial responses, but in the poll’s simulated ranked-choice count, Kreiss-Tomkins held a slight lead over Wilson after three rounds.

Wilson urged Republicans to coalesce around one candidate; Bronson and Taylor declined, the Times reports. At 37, Kreiss-Tomkins is trying to become the youngest governor in Alaska history.

Voices from the polls

“There needs to be a change.”

Mark Rios, a Republican from Dallas supporting Hinojosa

Wants a governor who will work toward “the middle ground.”

Alexandria Hensley, Cincinnati, a 2024 Trump voter

“If we don’t win midterms, there probably will be no more Republican Party.”

Chris Martsolf, Wichita, Kan.

Poll respondents quoted by The New York Times.

Newstro graphic: Trump's approval is 40 percent across the five states; Republicans hold 26 of 50 governorships; poll methodology details
GRAPHIC: NEWSTRO

The big picture

The Times reports voters have soured on President Trump amid frustration over the economy, rising gas prices and the war in Iran. Republicans hold 26 of the nation’s 50 governorships.

About 600 likely voters were interviewed in each of Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Kansas, and about 500 in Alaska, by phone from Sept. 22 to Oct. 1. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

40%Trump approval across the five states
NOV. 3Election Day

Sources and credits

Reporting

The New York Times — “Democrats Lead Governor Races Deep in Republican Territory, Polls Show” (Anna Griffin, Ruth Igielnik and Sejal Govindarao, Oct. 4, 2026).

Images

  • All graphics on this page — Newstro, based on New York Times reporting

The video uses file photos from Wikimedia Commons: Gina Hinojosa (RRC1701, CC0), Greg Abbott (NASA JSC / Robert Markowitz, public domain), Rob Sand (Rob Sand for Iowa, CC0), Zach Lahn (Aunger67, CC0), the Iowa State Capitol (Thesavagenorwegian, CC BY 4.0), Amy Acton (Myselfsour2724, CC BY-SA 4.0), Vivek Ramaswamy (Xuthoria, CC BY-SA 4.0), the Alaska State Capitol and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at an Alaska Day parade (James Brooks, CC BY 2.0), the Kansas State Capitol (Nils Huenerfuerst, CC BY 4.0) and Cindy Holscher (Mtcat101, CC BY 4.0).