A high-stakes corporate divorce in the prediction market boom
November 12, 2026, 5:25 p.m. Eastern time.
In a sharp collision between fintech ambitions and political venture capitalism, leading federally regulated prediction exchange Kalshi has officially severed its advisory contract with Donald Trump Jr. The termination, described by both sides as a mutual parting of ways, resolves an escalating corporate conflict created when the former president's eldest son and his conservative venture fund, 1789 Capital, took an aggressive financial stake in Kalshi’s fiercest global competitor, Polymarket.
Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a paid strategic advisor in January 2025, receiving advisory fees and equity options valued at hundreds of thousands of dollars to help guide the startup through regulatory and commercial expansion. However, as reporting by the Financial Times and Forbes revealed, Trump Jr.'s simultaneous alliance with rival Polymarket created an untenable commercial conflict that Kalshi’s board could no longer accommodate.
The 1789 Capital bet on an offshore rival
The friction originated within 1789 Capital, the Palm Beach-based venture firm founded by financier Omeed Malik, conservative publisher Christopher Buskirk, and Donald Trump Jr. Over the past year, 1789 Capital has positioned itself as an ideological counterweight to traditional Silicon Valley venture capital, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into “anti-woke” tech platforms and crypto protocols.
Earlier this fall, 1789 Capital led a massive institutional financing round totaling nearly $1 billion into Polymarket, the decentralized event trading platform founded by Shayne Coplan. As part of that arrangement, Trump Jr. assumed an advisory role with Polymarket, actively championing its blockchain-based wagering infrastructure.
For Kalshi—which fought a grueling multi-year legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to win formal regulatory authorization as a licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM)—having an official advisor simultaneously bankrolling and promoting an offshore competitor operating outside CFTC supervision proved an impossible governance paradox, according to analysis by The Guardian.
Timeline of Donald Trump Jr.'s prediction market ties
January 2025: Donald Trump Jr. signs on as a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi, receiving equity and consulting fees.
Spring 2025: Federal courts uphold Kalshi’s right to list election-based event contracts, sparking explosive retail trading volume.
Mid-2026: 1789 Capital explores major investments across decentralized finance; begins formal discussions with Polymarket.
October 2026: 1789 Capital leads landmark funding round for Polymarket, with Trump Jr. taking an advisory post.
November 3, 2026: Midterm elections drive record trading turnover across both Kalshi and Polymarket.
November 12, 2026: Kalshi and Donald Trump Jr. announce the mutual termination of their advisory relationship.
