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The Moral Hazard of Biden’s Support for Israel
The Moral Hazard of Biden’s Support for Israel
In the surreal two and a half hours between Israel’s announcement on April 13 that an Iranian attack was underway and the arrival of the first weapons, I, like many others, found myself pondering the likelihood of a regional war. My assessment, as I posted on X at the time, was that “preventing further escalation may hinge on both sides feeling able to claim victory—Iran on the basis of what gets through, and Israel on the basis of what doesn’t.” By this metric, the prospects for preventing further escalation seem good. Both sides have indeed declared victory—Israel on the basis of its defensive prowess and Iran on the basis of exaggerated claims of the strike’s success—which would normally be enough to prevent further fighting.
Quick Facts
- In the surreal two and a half hours between Israel’s announcement on April 13 that an Iranian attack was underway and the arrival of the first weapons, the likelihood of a regional war was pondered.
- If U.S. President Joe Biden is as serious about avoiding a wider war as he says he is, his administration must do more than simply ask Israel to show restraint.
- Two factors have prevented the Iranian strike from precipitating an all-out war: the stunning effectiveness of Israel’s defensive operations and the willingness of Iranian leaders to avoid a regional conflict.
But these aren’t necessarily normal conditions. Governments around the world are clearly concerned that Israel may launch a punitive attack on Iran that could spark a regional conflagration—and with good reason.
If U.S. President Joe Biden is as serious about avoiding a wider war as he says he is, his administration must do more than simply ask Israel to show restraint. The United States cannot stop Israel from retaliating in whatever way it wants against Iran, but it can choose whether to help Israel manage the consequences. To this end, Washington should use the best leverage it has—its commitment to defend Israel—to make clear that if Israel wants U.S. help in fighting the regional war that could be unleashed by its retaliating against Iran, it had better make sure that Washington is on board with whatever action it takes.
So far, two factors have prevented the Iranian strike from precipitating an all-out war: the stunning effectiveness of Israel’s defensive operations and the willingness of Iranian leaders, who apparently want to avoid a regional conflict, to tolerate Israel’s success.